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science

Two thoughts on the rationality of rationality

12 o'clock, July 28, 2005

  1. According to Cosmic Variance (citing NPR), “40 percent of Amercians believe they will be in the top one percent of income earners by the time they die.” (Wow, there must be a lot of churn in that top 1 percent . . .)

  2. Via John MacGowan:

    I need not discredit philosophy by laborious criticism of its arguments. It will suffice if I show as a matter of history it fails to prove its pretension to be ‘objectively’ convincing. In fact it does so fail. I believe that the logical reason of man operates in this field of divinity exactly as it has always operated in love, or in patriotism, or in politics, or in any other of the wider affairs of life, in which our passions or our mystical intuitions fix our beliefs beforehand. It finds arguments for our convictions, for it has to find them. It amplifies and defines our faith, and dignifies it, and lends it words and plausibility. It hardly ever engenders it; it cannot now secure it.

    — William James, Varieties of Religious Experience

Comments

What a sad statistic. I suspect people are making at least one more mistake than just over-estimating the likelyhood of becoming rich by their own standards. They probably have no idea how wide the gap is between the top one-percent and the rest of us.

—— Michael Canfield, 4:02 PM, Thursday, July 28, 2005

It's also entirely possible that it's a bogus statistic...

—— Benjamin Rosenbaum, 1:59 PM, Friday, July 29, 2005

I can't be bothered to listen to the whole piece to see where they got it or exactly how the question was phrased (this current fad for audio recordings is a mystery to me), but I'd be surprised if it's wildly off. I assume NPR is no less reliable than most pollsters.

—— David Moles, 2:16 PM, Friday, July 29, 2005

I'm mildly inclined to believe that NPR is if anything more accurate than most pollsters, but that most polls are bogus...

—— Benjamin Rosenbaum, 12:19 PM, Saturday, July 30, 2005

For a gloss on that James quote, see Mark Twain's cynical classic, "Corn Pone Opinions."

—— John Schoffstall, 8:35 PM, Saturday, July 30, 2005